New Delhi, April 8 (CommoditiesControl): In Bihar, maize arrivals have been steadily increasing since last week, leading to downward pressure on prices. The maize crop in Bihar is approximately 20% higher compared to the previous year, with observed good quality thus far.
Stockists in Bihar, having earned good returns last year, are anticipated to be aggressive in stocking this year as well. Additionally, some wheat stockists may switch to maize stocking amid concerns about potential government intervention to control prices in the future. Ethanol-producing buyers have also begun stocking in warehouses this year, contributing to overall increased godown bookings, up by around 20% compared to the previous year.
Today, around 1500 MT of new maize arrived in Gulabbagh mandi, with prices quoted at INR 2200-2225 per quintal, a decline of INR 25 per quintal from the previous session. Despite this decrease, prices have declined around INR 230 per quintal from their peak, and further declines are expected in the near term due to increasing arrivals. Weather conditions remain favorable, and quality is reported to be good.
Although there was a slight decline in arrivals due to labor shortages during Eid, it is expected to pick up again in the coming days. Dumping for rack loading has commenced from the Seemapur zone at around INR 2200-2225, with actual rack loading expected to start shortly.
Demand from poultry buyers remains relatively strong at current rates. However, starch producers are not active due to the possibility of lower-rate imports in the coming months. Starch producers have been importing maize under the advance authorization scheme, and they are likely to continue these imports as global maize prices remain weaker than Indian prices.
Given the bumper crop in Bihar, there is a possibility of maize being delivered from Bihar to Maharashtra/Gujarat regions if prices in Bihar touch the INR 2050-2100 per quintal range, considering the relatively low rack freight charges.
Ethanol-producing buyers are not active above the INR 2450-2500 range, and there is a possibility that the government may also consider importing maize to fulfill their capacity to meet blending targets.
Overall, unless there is a significant rise in maize prices in the global market, any sharp increase in Indian maize prices seems unlikely in the near to medium term, at least until mid-June.
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