NEW DELHI, Aug 27 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2021-22 dry pea production may fall to 2.75 million tonnes (Mt), down 40 percent from 2020-21, according to AAFC’s latest outlook report, published on August 20. This is largely due to extremely dry conditions across Western Canada that is expected to raise abandonment and reduce yields.
For 2020-21, exports are estimated at 3.7 million tonnes (Mt), marginally lower than the 2019-20 level, with record exports to China. This combined with higher domestic use is still expected to result in an increase in carry-out stocks. For yellow and feed peas, the crop year average price was sharply higher than 2019-20. Green pea prices were lower than the previous year. Despite higher carry-out stocks, the average dry pea price was 28% higher than 2019-20.
For 2021-22, Canadian dry pea production in Canada is forecast to fall sharply from 2020-21, to 2.75 Mt. This is largely due to extremely dry conditions across Western Canada that is expected to raise abandonment and reduce yields. Saskatchewan is estimated to account for 52% of the dry pea production, with 39% in Alberta, and the remainder across Canada. Supply is forecast to fall 33% to below 3.3 Mt, the lowest in 10 years, due to the fall in production. Exports are forecast to fall to 2.4 Mt, with China, Bangladesh and the US expected to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease sharply. The average price is expected to be higher than 2020-21.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2021-22 is forecast by USDA to fall by 6% from 2020-21, to 0.94 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in North Dakota. With lower yields and higher abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to fall to below 0.8 Mt. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to markets in China, Canada and Yemen. It is expected the US will continue to try keep its share in these markets in 2021-22.
Lentils
For 2020-21, lentil exports fell sharply to 2.4 Mt, from the previous year. Exports of red lentils were 1.4 Mt while 1.0 Mt were green lentils. The main markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was unchanged from 2019-20 at below 0.4 Mt. Carry out stocks rose to 0.4 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was 33% higher than it was for 2019-20. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained an average crop year premium of $135/t over No.1 red lentil prices.
For 2021-22, lentil production is forecast to fall by 34% to 1.9 Mt, the smallest Canadian lentil crop in nine years. Larger abandonment and reduced yields are expected due to drought in Western Canada. Total green lentil area rose, while red lentil area decreased marginally. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 87% of the lentil production, with the remainder in Alberta and Manitoba. Supply is also forecast to decrease sharply due to the reduction in yields, despite larger carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall to 2.0 Mt, with the reduction in exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall compared to the previous year. The average price is forecast to rise by 9% from 2020-21 with the expectations of lower world supply.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 11% to nearly 0.6 million acres (mln ac), due to higher area seeded in Montana. Assuming lower yields and higher abandonment, 2021-22 US lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC at below 0.3 Mt, down 12% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, Mexico and the EU.
Dry Beans
For 2020-21, dry bean exports were higher than 2019-20 with the higher Canadian supply and stronger world prices. The US and the EU remained the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico. A weaker Canadian dollar and a larger North American supply provided the majority of the pressure for Canadian dry bean prices in 2020-21, which fell 6% from the previous year.
For 2021-22, Canadian production is forecast to decrease to 0.30 Mt, as lower seeded area combines with lower yields. By province, Ontario is expected to account for 41% of total dry bean production, Manitoba 33%, Alberta 19%, with the remainder in Saskatchewan, Quebec and the Maritimes. Supply is expected to fall due to the lower production despite higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be marginally lower than the previous year. Canada is expected to maintain its market share in the US, Europe and Japan. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be 5% higher due to smaller expected supply in North America.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to fall by 13% to 1.51 million acres, largely due to decreased area seeded in North Dakota. Total US dry bean production for 2021-22 (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA to fall below 1.1 Mt, down 29% from 2020-21.
Chickpeas
For 2020-21, Canadian chickpea exports have risen from the previous year to 155 thousand tonnes (Kt). This was largely due to higher exports to Pakistan and the US. With the higher supply and despite increased exports, carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average price was 23% higher than the previous year due to lower world supply.
For 2021-22, production is forecast to fall to 87 Kt, due to lower area and poor yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for the majority of the chickpea production, with the remainder in Alberta. Supply is forecast to be much lower than last year. Exports are forecast to be lower than in 2020-21 and carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply. The average price is forecast to be 9% above 2020-21.
US chickpea area for 2021-2022 is forecast by the USDA at 0.34 million acres, up 26% from the previous year. Assuming below average yields and higher abandonment, 2021-22 US chickpea production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.18 Mt, down 8% from last year.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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