NEW DELHI, Oct 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest October report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global soybean ending stocks in 2021-22 to 104.57 million tonnes, compared to 98.89 million tonnes projected in September.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks, lower crush, and higher ending stocks.
Higher beginning stocks reflect increases for the United States, Argentina, and China. Argentina’s beginning stocks are raised on a downward revision to 2020/21 crush.
The 2021/22 crush for Argentina is also lowered, leading to lower exports of meal and oil.
China’s 2020/21 crush is lowered 1.0 million tonnes to 93.0 million tonnes based on end of year data.
Global soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are increased 5.7 million tonnes to 104.6 million tonnes, with higher stocks for the United States, Argentina, and China.
US Soybean production is forecast at 4.4 billion bushels, up 74 million bushels on higher yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.4 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 51.5 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the September forecast.
The largest production changes are for Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Soybean supplies for 2021/22 are projected at 4.7 billion bushels, up 145 million on higher production and beginning stocks. With higher crush and unchanged exports, 2021/22 ending stocks are projected at 320 million bushels, up 135 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.35 per bushel, down 55 cents reflecting larger supplies. The soybean meal price is forecast at $325.00 per short ton, down $35.00. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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