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Canada's 2022-23 Dry Peas Production Estimated to Rise by 68% y/y to 3.8 million tonnes

22 Jan 2022 3:06 pm
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NEW DELHI, Jan 22 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2022-23 dry peas production is estimated to rise by 68 percent from 2.26 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021-22 to 3.38 million tonnes, according to AAFC’s latest outlook report, published on January 21.

For 2022-23, seeded area is forecast to rise marginally from 2021-22 to 1.65 million hectares (Mha), because of good returns relative to other crops. Dry peas continue to be recognized as a beneficial part of a crop rotation plan. Production is expected to rise by 68% to 3.8 Mt.

Supply is forecast to rise sharply to 3.9 Mt despite lower carry-in stocks. With the expectation of a substantial increase in exportable supply, exports to other countries are expected to be higher than 2021-22 and carry-out stocks are expected to rise.

The average price is expected to be lower than 2021-22, due to lower all type pea prices and increased world supply.

For 2021-22, Canadian dry pea exports for the August to November period were 0.9 million tonnes (Mt), 40% lower than for the same period last year. China imported the largest portion to-date at 0.6 Mt. The leading export market, after China, is the US at 0.15 Mt. Total Canadian dry pea exports for the crop year are forecast to fall by over 40% to 2.1 Mt due to limited Canadian supply.

Canadian dry pea supply is estimated to fall by 44% as lower production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. With the lower supply, carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply and be supportive for prices throughout 2021-22.

The average price is expected to be nearly 80% higher than 2020-21, a record $610/t, due to higher prices for all types of dry peas. Yellow pea prices are expected to maintain a premium of $35/t over green peas for the crop year, compared to the $5/t premium green peas had over yellow peas last year.

US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at nearly 1.0 Mt, down 3% from 2020-21. This was largely due to lower seeded area and poor yields. As a result, Canadian dry pea exports to the US are forecast to be 0.3 Mt in 2021-22, sharply higher than the previous year.

Lentils

For 2021-22, Canadian lentil exports for the August to November period totaled 0.65 Mt, 37% lower than the amount exported during the same period in 2020. Turkey imported the largest portion to-date at 0.2 Mt. The leading export market, after Turkey, is India, followed by the United Arab Emirates. Total Canadian lentil exports for 2021-22 are forecast to fall sharply to 1.7 Mt.

The supply of lentils in Canada is estimated to be over a 1.0 Mt lower than last year as higher carry-in stocks were mostly offset by lower production. With the sharply lower supply despite a decrease in exports, this is expected to lead to lower carry-out stocks for the end of the 2021-22 crop year.

The overall average price range is forecast to rise by 67% from last year to a record $1,080/t. Stronger prices for all lentil types have combined with an average grade distribution. As a result, there have been lower discounts for the lower grades for all lentil types. Prices for No.1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a premium of $320/t above the price of No.1 red lentils over the crop year, compared to a $135/t premium in 2020-21.

US lentil production is estimated at 231 thousand tonnes (Kt), down 31% from the previous year. As a result, Canadian lentil exports to the US are forecast at 70 Kt for 2021-22, up from the previous year.

For 2022-23, seeded area in Canada is expected to rise by 3% to 1.8 Mha, due to strong prices for the No.1 grades in the previous year.

Production is forecast to rise by 56% to 2.5 Mt.

With lower carry-in stocks, supply is expected to rise by nearly 0.6 Mt to 2.6 Mt. Exports are forecast to rise from 2021-22 to 2.1 Mt with a larger exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 100 Kt. With the assumption of an average grade distribution and grade discounts, the overall lentil price is forecast to fall from 2021-22.

Dry beans

For 2021-22, exports are forecast to be lower than last year. The EU and the US are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico. Despite the smaller supply, carry-out stocks are expected to be higher than the previous year due to the reduced exports. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to increase by 27% to a record $1,180/t, due to lower production and supply in North America.

US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA at just over 1.0 Mt, down 31% from 2020-21. US dry bean production was lower for all bean types, particularly for white pea, black and pinto bean type production, which decreased sharply. This is expected to continue to be supportive for Canadian record dry bean prices in 2021-22.

For 2022-23, the area seeded is forecast to be lower than 2021-22, because of ample carry-out stocks and favorable potential returns for other crops, particularly soybeans and corn. Production is expected to increase marginally to 0.39 Mt despite lower area but with the expectations for improved yields, particularly in Manitoba. Supply is expected to be marginally higher at 0.58 Mt.

Exports and carry-out stocks are also forecast to be marginally higher than 2021-22. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be lower than the previous year due to expectations for a larger North American supply.

Chickpeas

For 2021-22, exports are forecast to be higher than 2020-21 at 160 Kt. The US and Turkey have been the main markets for Canadian chickpeas to-date. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall to nearly half of those in the previous year. The average price is forecast to rise to a record $1,065/t, due to strong world demand and lower carry-out stocks.

US chickpea production is estimated by USDA to fall to 138 Kt, down 29% from 2020-21, largely due to poor yields.

For 2022-23, the area seeded is forecast to rise from 2021-22 because of expectations for solid returns

relative to other pulse crops. As a result, production is expected to rise sharply to 125 Kt. Supply is expected to decrease by 17% from last year as the higher production is more than offset by smaller carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to be lower than the previous year and carry-out stocks are expected to fall for the third consecutive year. The average price is forecast to be lower than 2021-22 due to expectations for an increase in world supply.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

       
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