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USDA revises up 2022-23 global soybean ending stocks estimate to 101.41 million tonnes

12 Aug 2022 11:13 pm
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NEW DELHI, Aug 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global soybean ending stocks in 2022-23 to 101.41 million tonnes, compared to 99.61 million tonnes projected in July 2022.

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks.

Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2021/22 exports.

Soybean production for 2022/23 is forecast at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million with higher yields more than offsetting lower harvested area.

Harvested area is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 0.3 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre is raised 0.4 bushels from last month.

Soybean supplies for 2022/23 are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, up 36 million from last month. U.S. soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to 2.16 billion on increased supplies.

Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, up 15 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.35 per bushel, down 5 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil price forecasts are unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0 cents per pound, respectively.

The 2022/23 global oilseed supply and use forecasts include higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month.

Global oilseed production is raised 2.9 million tons to 646.0 million with higher forecasts for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed partly offset with lower cottonseed production in the United States.

In addition to higher production for the United States, soybean production for China is increased on higher area cited in recent provincial reports.

Australia’s canola crop is raised 0.7 million tons to 6.1 million on higher yields resulting from favorable weather conditions. Russia’s rapeseed crop is forecasted at a record 3.9 million tons, up 1.1 million from the previous forecast on sharply higher area.

Russia’s sunflowerseed production is raised 1.5 million tons to 17 million, also on higher reported area. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for the EU and South Africa. Lower EU production reflects hot, dry conditions in July.

Global 2022/23 oilseed crush is raised on higher soybean crush for Brazil and higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed crush for Russia.

With increased supplies, rapeseed exports are raised for Australia and Russia. Global rapeseed exports are also raised with the addition of Uruguay to global supply and demand estimates.

Sunflowerseed imports are raised for the EU and Belarus paired with increased exports for Russia and Ukraine. Global oilseed stocks are raised with higher soybean and rapeseed stocks partly offset with lower sunflowerseed stocks.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

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