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Week Ahead: Tur to maintain firm tone on regular demand for Tur dal

24 Sep 2022 9:37 pm
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MUMBAI, 24 Sep (Commoditiescontrol) - Burma origin Lemon variety Tur remained firm as sellers were inactive at lower rates, low ready stock and less supplies from its origin.

On other hand, domestic variety Tur at Akola market bilty basis traded steady to firm amid limited mills purchase, below expectation offtake of Tur dal and resistance at higher rates.

As per technical chart - Mumbai Lemon Tur - More upside likely in the near term. We see the next resistance at Rs 8,000. Click here

NCCF has invited bids from importers for procurement of imported Tur for PSF buffer. The decision has supported prices.

Similarly, Africa origin all varieties Tur also moved higher in the range of Rs 50-200/100Kg. However, cheaper supplies from Africa around 70,000-80,000 tonnes till mid of October will restrict gains.

Vessel M V ISLANDER carrying 23,800 MT Mozambique Tur is expected to arrive at Mumbai port on 26th September 2022, according to a shipping agency.

According to the Government’s first advance estimates for 2022-23, tur production is estimated down by 10.37% at 38.9 lakh ton against the 2021-22 fourth estimates of 43.4.

As per technical chart - Akola desi Tur - More near term upside appears probable/ we see next potential resistance at Rs 8,300. Click here

At Yangon market, prices of Tur Lemon variety remained almost unchanged to $940 per ton on a CNF Chennai basis. At prevailing CNF rates and exchange rate landed cost of Tur at Indian ports was at Rs 7,825/100kg. Meanwhile, currency movement witnessed in the range of 3100-3200 Kyat/dollar.

Similarly, CNF quotes for African origins were also marginally up.

Firm overseas CNF quote and depreciation of Rupee to 81.25 against USD has made landed cost imports costlier.

As per the latest sowing data released by the government of India 2022-23, Kharif Tur acreage was down 4.52% (compared to the same period last year) as of Sep 23 at 46.04 Lakh Ha Vs 48.22 last year.

Trend: Regular offtake for Tur dal from wholesale-retail counter likely to support raw Tur prices. Meanwhile, demand is still below expectation and face resistance at higher rates as actual buying volume remain thin. Time period for arrival of supply pressure from Africa to hit India ports is very less. Already, Tur dal processed from African origin Tur is offered at lower rates for next month delivery condition. This will result in an increased price difference in Tur dal processed from Lemon variety and domestic variety versus dal processed from African Tur. As a result, prices of Tur dal processed from desi Tur and Lemon Tur may come under pressure at higher rates. Stockiest will exit from Tur at higher rates and shift for soybean stock, new Kharif Moong arrivals, cheaper Masoor will cap prices at higher level. Any rise in prices should be seen as an opportunity to exit.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015513)

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