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Canada's 2022-23 Canola production pegged higher by 40% y/y to 19.10 million tonnes

6 Oct 2022 11:23 am
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NEW DELHI, Oct 6 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2022-23 canola production is pegged higher by 40 percent from 13.76 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021-22 to 19.10 million tonnes, according to AAFC’s latest September outlook report.

The 2022-23 production was estimated higher by 46 percent from 12.59 million tonnes in 2021-22 to 18.4 million tonnes from in the August forecast.

For 2021-22, Canada exported 5.3 Mt of canola, down sharply from the previous crop year as a result of the western Canadian drought, while domestic crush was 8.6 Mt. Carry-out was 0.87 Mt, versus the 5-year average of 2.7 Mt, on tight domestic supplies and strong world demand. The simple average price for canola is $1,075/t versus $730/t last year and the 5-year average of $556/t.

For 2022-23, canola seeded area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares (Mha), down 4% from last year with a predicted harvested area of 8.6 Mha. Yields are estimated at 2.23 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) compared to last year’s drought reduced 1.54 t/ha. Production is projected at 19.1 Mt based on satellite image, model-based estimates. By province, Saskatchewan is forecast to grow 9.7 Mt of canola, Alberta 6.1 Mt and Manitoba 3.1 Mt.

Total supply is forecast to rise sharply from last year to 20.1 Mt, as the increase in production is constrained by tight carry-in.

Usage of Canadian canola is forecast to recover; expected exports are up by about 77% to 9.3 Mt while domestic crush rises to 10.0 Mt versus 8.6 Mt last year. Carry-out stocks are down to 0.50 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 3%. Canola prices are forecast to decline to $865/t track Vancouver, a drop of about 20% from the record high in 2021-22. If realized, this would be the second highest canola price on record.

The 2022-23 outlook remains sensitive to several factors: (i) harvest conditions across Western Canada, the US and the world, (ii) strength of world vegetable oil and protein meal demand, (iii) supply chain shocks, (iv) macroeconomic shocks such as inflation, rising interest rates and fluctuating crude oil prices, (v) rate of growth of the biodiesel sector and (vi) fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

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