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Global Wheat Market: Brazil's Record Harvest to Boost Exports, Argentina and US Face Challenges

24 Mar 2023 9:30 pm
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Mumbai, 24 March (Commoditiescontrol): Brazilian Wheat Industry Association Abitrigo recently held a webinar where experts discussed the global wheat market. Rubens Barbosa, the Abitrigo Executive President, highlighted the importance of understanding global trends and forecasts in the wheat market. Miguel Galdos from US Wheat Associates cited wheat analytics from the USDA, stating that the global wheat harvest in 2022/23 is estimated at 788.9 million tons, while consumption is about 793.2 million tons, resulting in a deficit of 4.2 million tons.

Canada's wheat exports are expected to be up by 10 million tons in the 2022/23 season, with exports projected to be 25 million tons. In contrast, the US saw a decline in wheat exports over the past two harvests, and its final stocks for the current season will be reduced due to domestic demand and exports.

In Argentina, wheat production was severely affected by water shortages and hard frosts. As a result, the 2022/23 crop was 10 million tons less than the previous year, and exports declined by 73% between December 2022 and January 2023 compared to the same period of the previous harvest. Sales to Brazil are down by 32% in these two months compared to 2021/22.

Russian wheat remains competitive, and the expected harvest volume in 2023 is 86 million tons, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).

In Europe, the 2022/23 harvest was marked by drought, with France being one of the most affected players. The continent's exports are expected to be between 30 and 32 tons of wheat next season, with Lithuania potentially becoming a new source for importers.

Forecasts indicate that India will have 5% more wheat production in the 2023/24 season compared to the previous season. However, the export ban remains in place, creating an uncertain scenario for overseas sales this agricultural year.

Although a large grain producer, China is still dependent on imports due to the large quantity of initial stocks used to ensure food security in the country. The weather has been favorable for Chinese wheat this season.

Elcio Bento, an analyst at the Safras & Mercado consulting firm, stated that Brazil is expected to have a record wheat harvest of 11.545 million tons, with increased exports and reduced imports. For the new 2023/24 crop, the analyst emphasized the reduction in production costs and the increase in the area under wheat. This would attract more producers to grow wheat in Brazil, which can increase the country's wheat production for various purposes such as milling, flour production, animal feed production, and ethanol production."

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)

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