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Week Ahead: Urad's upside potential is limited, may witness correction ahead

1 Apr 2023 8:58 pm
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MUMBAI, April 01 (Commoditiescontrol): Burma-origin Urad has registered its third consecutive weekly rise for the week ending April 01, 2023. This increase is attributed to several factors, including firm CNF quotes for Mynmar-origin Urad, limited supply from Burma, and higher landed cost of Burma-origin Urad. Additionally higher Mill demand for Urad to meet the immediate crushing requirement. The demand for Urad dal was good.

For the third consecutive week, there was an improvement in the offtake of Urad dal, resulting in a price increase of Rs 200 to reach Rs 9,800-10,600/100Kg in the Mumbai market.

Meanwhile, the price of the domestic Urad variety remained relatively stable, trading at Rs 7,300-8,050/100Kg in Jalgaon due to limited demand from mills.

In contrast, the new rabi Urad crop from Krishna district saw a price increase of Rs 100, with rates reaching Rs 7,800/100Kg for Guntur delivery and Rs 7,850 for Vijaywada delivery. The Branded Urad Gota variety also experienced a firm trade, with prices rising by Rs 100 to reach Rs 10,100/100 kg.



Due to India's purchasing activities, the Burma Urad FAQ and SQ price, CNF Chennai, increased by $30/MT at the Yangon market. Around 30-40 containers of new crop Urad FAQ variety were traded at $870 per MT on a FOB basis.

A local trader reported that buyers and sellers were observing the Indian market's movements closely and refrained from taking any action. This was due to the Indian government's increased efforts to monitor stock disclosures of pulses.

The value of the Burmese kyat remained steady against the US dollar, with 1 US dollar equivalent to 2850 Kyat, the same rate as the previous week.



As per technical chart - Burma Urad SQ (Chennai) - Positive short term trend / Next resistance at Rs 8,500. Click here

As per the technical chart - Burma Urad FAQ (Mumbai) - A breakout above Rs 7,500 may trigger another leg higher towards Rs 8,500. Stay tuned. Click here

Trend: The rising prices of urad could face obstacles at higher levels for various reasons. Firstly, the demand for Urad Dal typically decreases during the summer, leading to subdued millers' buying. Additionally, new crop arrivals from the Thanjavur district of Tamil Nadu are expected to enter the market this month, with a crop size of around 30000-35000 tons and quality similar to the Burma FAQ variety. Furthermore, there have been recent arrivals of new rabi crops in the Krishna and Prakasam districts of Andhra Pradesh, leading to increased supply. Additionally, the supply from Burma may increase at higher rates as stockists/traders may book profits before the upcoming water festival holiday that commences on April 13, 2023. Finally, as of March 31, 2023, the area sown with India Summer Urad has increased by 21.12% compared to the same period last year, reaching 1.95 lakh hectares. This increase may have a bearish impact on Urad prices.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)


       
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