Week Ahead: Tur Prices Expected to Remain Strong with Support from Robust Fundamentals

MUMBAI, April 23rd (Commoditiescontrol): MUMBAI, April 23rd (Commoditiescontrol): During the week ending April 22, 2023, imported Tur of Burma and African origins registered marginal gains. This was due to need-based millers buying and lower overseas supply. Whereas domestic origins witnessed a fall for the second week despite falling arrivals and lower supply of imported Tur due to weak demand for Tur dal and stockiest staying away from the market due to the government's strict monitoring of stocks with market participants and making its intention clear its intention to take stern action if there is any significant price rise in Tur.

The price of Burma lemon Tur rose by Rs 50/100kg due to need-based demand from mills and supply shortage. African-origin Tur also increased by 50-100/100kg. There was a negligible supply of African-origin Tur as stocks had almost dried out in Africa. The only remaining stock is with Sudan. A vicious power struggle between the regular army and a powerful paramilitary force has led to violence across the country, resulting in a halt in exports. Furthermore, the price of Sudan-origin Tur was too high, making imports unfeasible.

In the case of Burma, Indian and Burmese stockists are holding a significant chunk of this year's crop, leading to a significant reduction in supply for export. Here again, export prices are high, making landed costs higher and imports unfeasible.

Despite falling domestic arrivals, the price of desi Tur in the Akola market fell for a second straight week, declining by Rs 25-50 in Bilty trade and closing the week at Rs 8,650/100Kg. This was due to a thin buying from local and outstation mills, as there was a dull offtake of dal due to government intervention and slow offtake in Tur dal. Similarly, Tur prices dropped by Rs 100 to Rs 8,000-8,400/100 kg at the Gulbarga market, depending on quality.

Domestically processed Tur dal made from the new crop in Akola witnessed a further decline of Rs 200/100Kg due to a dull offtake, while prices in Gulbarga remained steady due to limited activity. However, in Katni, the prices traded firm by Rs 50/100Kg due to fresh need-based counter demand at lower rates.

Additionally, the prices of Tur dal made from Sudan, Burma, and Mozambique origin Tur decreased by Rs 100-200/100Kg due to a slack offtake, despite being offered at a steep discount to domestically processed dal made from desi Tur.



The prices of Sudanese and Malawian Tur, which are of African origin, have both gone up by Rs 50/100Kg. This increase can be attributed to the need-based demands of mills, coupled with a decrease in supply from Sudan due to ongoing conflict in the country. Meanwhile, Mozambique Tur (Grajri-white variety) remained steady.



The CNF Mumbai price for the Burma Tur Lemon variety remained steady at the Yangon market, which has reopened after a prolonged holiday for the water festival. This was due to the inactivity of both local and overseas buyers. In addition, the Burmese kyat maintained a stable value against the US dollar, with 1 US dollar being equivalent to 2850 Kyat, the same rate as the preceding session.



As per technical chart - Mumbai Lemon Tur - Trending higher / Next resistance at Rs 8,250. Click here

Trend :Government intervention has paused the Tur price rally, but the demand-supply equation indicates that it is difficult to keep prices artificially low.This is due to several factors, including declining local arrivals, an empty pipeline as buyers make only need-based purchases, and minimal overseas supply.

Furthermore, purchases by NAFED and NCCF in the open market, along with the Tamil Nadu government's tender, will provide support to Tur prices.Despite this, the upcoming mango season and abundant supply of new crops of moong and Masoor, both desi and imported, will limit prices at higher levels.

The monsoon's performance will be the primary factor determining the direction of Tur prices, and this may be influenced by the development of El Nino in the second half of the year.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)