Mumbai, May 04 (Commoditiescontrol):The Indore Chana market saw steady to weak prices during the week ending on May 04th, 2023. This was due to several factors, such as the demand for the crushing process from millers remaining need-based, a lack of offtake in dal-besan, and ongoing arrivals. Additionally, the market sentiment was cautious because government officials were conducting stock surveys in major pulses-producing areas. Collectively, these factors contributed to the steady to weak prices observed in the Indore Chana market.
On the other hand, in the Delhi market, the price of Rajasthan-origin Chana increased by Rs 75/100Kg due to mills buying amid lower supply from Rajasthan. This price rise is due to the arrival of good quality Chana this week. Bikaner's prices have also increased by Rs 50/100kg due to mills buying and below-average arrivals at producing centres in Rajasthan. During this year's harvest period, the crop in Rajasthan faced adverse weather conditions, which impacted its quality and yield adversely. As a result, there is a wide variation in the quality of arrivals, and due to the lower yield, production is lower, resulting in below-expectation arrivals.
The prices of Chana in Akola's bilty trade increased by Rs 50/100Kg during the week due to local and outstation mills' purchases.
In the Mumbai market, old and new Tanzania-origin Chana prices remained unchanged at Rs 4,750/100Kg and Rs 4,850/100Kg, respectively.
Due to thin offtake, the Chana dal prices in Indore, Akola, and Jaipur remained unchanged. Similarly, besan prices at the Mumbai APMC market also remained steady.
As of May 4th, 2023, during the Rabi season, the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) has procured 17,06,838 metric tons of Chana under the Price Support Scheme (PSS) at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs 5,335 per metric ton.
In February, India's export of desi Chana saw a nearly 10-fold surge, driven by strong demand from neighbouring countries and tight availability globally. The latest data shows that India exported 52,495 tonnes of desi Chana in Feb-23, compared to 5,373 tonnes in the same period last year. In particular, Bangladesh purchased 47,518 tonnes in February. India exported 126,846 tonnes of desi Chana from April 2022 to Feb 2023, which is a 195% increase from 42,942 tonnes in the previous year.
According to the latest data released by Nafed, the agency has procured around 17 lakh metric tons of chana, which amounts to about 12.5% of the government's total crop estimate of 136 lakh tonnes. However, the trade estimate is around 80 lakh tonnes. Therefore, the government procured about 21% of the crop if we take this number.
The difference between these two estimates is because the government considers the total crop estimate, whereas the trade estimate considers only the marketable surplus. Furthermore, adverse weather conditions during the growth and harvest stages have led to a yield loss this year. Despite this, the government has not discounted the crop loss due to this reason. Additionally, this year, the acreage for desi chana was shifted to Kabuli. Still, the government data needs to account for this, as it provides the acreage for chana, which includes both desi and kabuli varieties.
Trend:According to market analysts, the price of Chana is likely to remain steady within the range of Rs 100-200 per 100kg. This is primarily because of the demand-driven purchases made by mills focusing on fulfilling their immediate needs. At the same time, the demand for Chana dal and besan is comparatively low, which is further contributing to the limited offtake. Additionally, the reduced arrivals in the open market are causing a matching demand and supply situation, as farmers prefer to sell their produce to NAfed at MSP (Minimum Support Price).
There is a significant difference between government and trade estimates for Chana production. Let's go by the trade production estimate of 80 lakh tones. The government has already procured 21% of the total crop and continues to procure daily, increasing this number daily. This could create a shortage in the open market, which may push up prices. Despite this, traders may not take significant positions because the government already holds around 30% of total consumption. Ongoing procurement could increase this to 45% of total yearly consumption, sufficient to dictate the market direction.
(By Commodities Control Bureau: 09820130172)
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