IGC Revises Global Soybean Production and Trade Forecasts

Mumbai, May 19 (Commoditiescontrol): In the latest report by the International Grains Council (IGC), soybeans' supply and demand dynamics have been revised, reflecting changing conditions in key producing and consuming regions.

The forecast for global soybean use in the 2022/23 season has been downgraded by 2 million tonnes (m/t) to 364 million tonnes, marking a decrease of 2 million tonnes compared to the previous month. However, stocks have been slightly upgraded to 50 million tonnes, showing an increase of 5 million.
Trade projections remain stable compared to the previous month, with an expected increase of 12 million tonnes year-on-year (y/y). Notably, Brazil and China are anticipated to contribute to this rise. The global production forecast for 2023/24 has been raised by 2 million tonnes to 403 million tonnes, representing a significant 9% increase. This positive adjustment is primarily due to improved crop prospects in South America. Additionally, considering a larger carry-in figure, inventories are expected to rise by 4 million tonnes compared to the previous month.

On the global import front, there has been a slight trimming of demand by 1 million tonnes. However, despite this adjustment, world import demand is projected to increase substantially, driven by shipments to Argentina and Asia.

Looking specifically at the 2022/23 season, global soybean output is estimated to reach 369 million tonnes, a 4% increase. This growth is attributed to a record-breaking harvest in Brazil, compensating for other regions' declines. As a result, soybean uptake is expected to experience a marginal contraction, leading to an increase in stocks.

The report also indicates that in the 2023/24 season, global soybean production is projected to reach a peak of 403 million tonnes, representing a remarkable 9% year-on-year gain. Improved crop yields in South America primarily drive this growth. The rising demand for soybean products from the feed, food, and industrial sectors is anticipated to contribute to a 7% increase in consumption year-on-year. As a result, stocks are expected to accumulate significantly, including in the major producing countries. Trade is predicted to reach a record volume of 173 million tonnes, reflecting a 3% increase.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: +91-9820130172)