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USDA revises 2023-24 global cotton production estimates downward to 112.92 million bales

8 Dec 2023 11:43 pm
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NEW DELHI, Dec 8 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2023-24 to 112.92 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 113.46 million bales projected in November 2023.

The global December 2023/24 cotton balance sheet includes lower consumption and higher ending stocks than last month. World consumption is projected 1.6 million bales lower, largely due to a 1.0-million-bale reduction in China.

Turkey’s consumption forecast is 400,000 bales lower, and the United States and Mexico are also down, while Bangladesh is up 100,000 bales.

Global production is forecast 540,000 bales lower than in November as reductions for the United States, Turkey, and Mexico more than offset a 200,000-bale increase for Pakistan.

World trade is down only slightly as larger expected imports by China—up 500,000 bales—nearly offset reductions in Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Larger expected exports by Turkey are more than offset by a 300,000-bale reduction for Brazil and smaller reductions elsewhere.

World 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast 900,000 bales higher this month, with China’s projected stocks up 1.5 million bales. Total projected global stocks of 82.4 million bales are 72 percent of use.

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton forecasts include lower production, mill use, and ending stocks.

Production is reduced 314,000 bales to 12.8 million largely due to a 500,000-bale decrease in the Texas crop. U.S. mill use is reduced 150,000 bales as spinning activity continues to lag, and at 1.9 million bales, is expected to be its lowest
since 1884.

Ending stocks are now projected 100,000 bales lower than in November at 3.1 million bales, or 22 percent of disappearance. The projected upland cotton season average farm price is unchanged at 77 cents per pound.

USDA- 2023-24 (Dec 2023) vs 2022-23 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

WORLD
Opening Stock- 82.83/76.34
Production-112.92/116.64
Import- 43.15/37.69
Consumption-113.73/111.52
Export- 43.15/37.03
Ending Stock- 82.40/82.83

INDIA
Opening Stock-11.82/8.40
Production-25/26.30
Import-1.30/1.73
Consumption-24/23.50
Export-1.80/1.10
Ending Stock-12.32/11.82

US
Opening Stock-4.25/4.05
Production-12.78/14.47
Import 0.01/
Consumption-1.90/2.05
Export-12.20/12.77
Ending Stock-3.10/4.25

CHINA
Opening Stock-37.40/38.06
Production-27/30.70
Import-11/6.23
Consumption-36.50/37.50
Ending Stock-38.81/37.40

BRAZIL
Opening Stock-5.76/3.88
Production-14.56/11.72
Consumption-3.30/3.20
Export- 11.50/6.66
Ending Stock-5.54/5.76

PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.53/1.93
Production-6.70/3.90
Import- 4/4.50
Consumption-10/8.70
Export-0.08/0.10
Ending Stock-2.15/1.53

BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.73/2.28
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-7.50/7
Consumption-7.80/7.70
Ending Stock-1.59/1.73

VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.05/1.02
Import-6.70/6.47
Consumption-6.70/6.45
Ending Stock-1.05/1.05

AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.77/4.96
Production-5.10/5.80
Export-5.65/6.17
Ending Stock- 4.41/4.77

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

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