NEW DELHI, April 11 - In its latest April 2024 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has trimmed its forecast for global soybean production in 2023-24 to 396.73 million tonnes, compared to 396.85 million tonnes projected in March 2024.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and nearly unchanged ending stocks.
Soybean production is estimated to fall mainly for South Africa on drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacted yield potential. Partly offsetting is higher production for Paraguay, up 0.2 million tonnes to 10.5 million tonnes.
Global soybean exports are expected to decrease by 0.5 million tonnes to 173.1 million tonnes mainly on lower exports for the United States and South Africa partly offset by higher shipments for Paraguay.
Imports are estimated lower for Indonesia, Russia, Algeria, and the United States, but estimated higher for the EU.
Global soybean ending stocks are expected to remain unchanged with higher stocks for the United States offset by lower stocks for Canada, Iran, and Russia.
The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 includes lower imports, residual, and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean trade is likely to fall on pace to date and expectations for future shipments.
With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are estimated higher by 25 million bushels to 340 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are likely to remain unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively.
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