MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its August estimate for 2014-15 cotton crop, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has increased its forecast on world cotton ending stocks by 9 percent to 22 million tons.
Since 2010/11 to 2014/15, the world has accumulated 13.4 million tons of stock as production exceeded consumption.
However, it forecasts stocks to decrease 5 percent to just under 21 million tons in 2015-16, reducing the excess volume by around 1 million tons. After increasing 16 percent to 9.4 million tons in 2014-15, stocks held outside of China are expected to decrease by 4 percent, to 9 million tons, by the end of 2015-16.
Stocks in 2015-16 are projected to decrease as consumption overtakes production for the first time in five seasons. World production in 2015-16 is forecast down 9 percent to 23.8 million tons. Output is expected to fall from 2-16 percent in the five largest producing countries. Rising costs of production and a decreased subsidy in China are likely to lead to a 16 percent drop in production to 5.4 million tons.
India’s production is forecast down just 2 percent to 6.4 million tons due to improved yields from better monsoon weather this season and low prices for competing crops reducing the loss of cotton area.
World consumption is projected to rise by 2 percent to 24.9 million tons in 2015-16. However, China’s consumption is forecast to remain stable at around 7.7 million tons. Mill use is also expected to grow in four largest consuming countries.
World cotton trade is expected to remain stable at 7.7 million tons in 2015-16. China is likely to maintain its limited import quota through 2016.
ICAC estimates Chinese imports to fall as much as 10 percent to 1.6 million tons in 2015-16, while imports by other nations is estimated to rise by 4 percent to 6.1 million tons.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015532)
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