NEW DELHI, May 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest May report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday forecast global soybean production in 2023-24 at 410.59 million tonnes, up 10.84 percent from the year before.
The USDA has estimated global soybean production in 2022-23 at 370.42 million tonnes.
The 2023/24 global oilseed outlook shows higher production, crush, and ending stocks compared with last marketing year.
Global production is rising 43.8 million tonnes to 671.2 million mainly on higher soybean production for South America and the United States, higher sunflowerseed for the EU, and higher rapeseed for the EU and Canada. Partly offsetting is lower rapeseed production for Australia on a lower yield after 3 years of exceptional weather conditions.
Combined production for major South American producers (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) is growing 31.9 million tonnes after last year’s drought in southern South America and a higher expected area.
Global 2023/24 oilseed crush is growing 20.7 million tonnes to 542.5 million, with most of the growth in soybean crush for Argentina, China, Brazil, and the United States. Soybean products account for the majority of the growth in oilseed meal and vegetable oil trade, counter to last marketing year when lower Argentine supplies depressed soybean product exports and were replaced by palm oil and sunflowerseed and rapeseed products.
The growth in global oilseed trade is slower than the prior decade, increasing less than 1 percent in 2023/24 as higher soybean exports are mostly offset by lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed shipments.
Trade is limited by higher oilseed production in major importing countries and lower production in major exporters of rapeseed. For the EU, higher oilseed production drives lower import demand of sunflowerseed, rapeseed, soybeans, and products. Larger soybean crush for China also reduces demand for rapeseed and products. Rapeseed production in major exporters, particularly Australia and Ukraine, is also down.
Global 2023/24 soybean trade is growing 4 million tonnes to 172.4 million, reflecting increased demand by China and higher imports for Pakistan, Egypt, and Bangladesh after last marketing year’s declines. China’s imports are rising 2 million tonnes to 100 million, a slower rate than the prior decade.
With projected weaker growth for China and EU soybean imports, coupled with record South American supplies, the U.S. share of global exports is expected to decline.
Global 2023/24 soybean ending stocks are projected up 21.5 million tonnes to 122.5 million, with most of the increase for Brazil, Argentina, the United States, and China. The ending stocks figure includes mid-season stocks (September 30, 2024) for Brazil and Argentina and reflects growing supplies leading into the 2024 U.S. export season.
The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/23. The soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields. With lower beginning stocks partly offsetting increased production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.75 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2022/23.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is projected at 132.8 million tonnes, up 6.9 million from 2022/23 mainly on higher soybean production. Production forecasts are also higher for canola, peanuts, and cottonseed.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2023/24 is projected at 2.31 billion bushels, up 90 million from the 2022/23 forecast on favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, which is projected to increase 900 million pounds to 12.5 billion.
Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2 percent from 2022/23 on lower soybean meal prices and modest growth primarily in poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.8 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade slightly above the prior 5-year average.
U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, down 40 million from 2022/23 with strong competition from increasing South American production and limited gains in global import demand.
U.S. ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 335 million bushels, up 120 million from the revised 2022/23 forecast.
Soybean and product prices are all forecast lower for 2023/24. The 2023/24 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel compared with $14.20 per bushel in 2022/23.
Soybean meal prices are forecast at $365 per short ton, down $90. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 58 cents per pound, down 6 cents from 2022/23.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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