NEW DELHI, Oct 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest October report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has further scaled down its forecast for global ending stocks estimates in 2023-24 to 115.62 million tonnes, compared to 119.25 million tonnes projected in September 2023.
World 2023/24 oilseed production is lowered 0.2 million tonnes to 538.5 million tonnes mainly on lower soybean and peanut output for India and lower canola production for Canada. Partly offsetting is higher rapeseed production for Poland and higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina.
India soybean production is lowered 1 million tonnes to 11 million tonnes, as near-record rains in September along with the historically dry conditions in August negatively impacted yields.
Global 2023/24 soybean exports are lowered 0.2 million tonnes to 168.2 million tonnes with lower exports for the United States partly offset by higher shipments for Brazil.
Soybean imports are lowered for Pakistan. Global soybean crush is increased 0.8 million tonnes to 328.5 million tonnes on higher crush for China and the United States. China’s crush is raised 1 million tonnes to 97.0 million tonnes in line with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year. Partly offsetting is lower crush for India and Pakistan on lower supplies.
Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 3.6 million tonnes to 115.6 million tonnes mainly on lower stocks for China, Brazil, and India.
U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is forecast at 120.9 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month with lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed production.
Soybean production is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million on lower yields.
Harvested area is unchanged at 82.8 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from the September forecast. The largest production changes are for Kansas, Michigan, and Nebraska.
With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 24 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion with increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is projected at 2.3 billion bushels, up 10 million, driven by higher soybean meal exports and soybean oil domestic demand.
Soybean oil domestic use is raised in line with an increase for 2022/23. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 220 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 63 cents per pound, respectively.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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