NEW DELHI, Feb 8 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest February 2024 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global ending stocks in 2023-24 to 116.03 million tonnes, compared to 114.60 million tonnes projected in January 2024.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks, lower production, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month.
Beginning stocks are raised 1.7 million tonnes mainly on a higher 2022/23 crop for Brazil. Brazil’s 2022/23 production is raised 2 million tonnes to 162 million tonnes on a higher area and yield, and reflects nearly finalized crush and export data through the end of the crop year.
Brazil’s 2023/24 crop is reduced 1 million tonnes to 156 million tonnes as higher harvested area is offset by a lower yield on adverse weather conditions in southern Mato Grosso and Parana.
Global soybean exports for 2023/24 are reduced 0.4 million tonnes to 170.6 million tonnes on lower shipments for the United States. Partly offsetting are higher exports for Brazil on a strong year-to-date (October-January) pace. Imports are reduced for Vietnam.
Global soybean ending stocks are increased 1.4 million tonnes to 116 million tonnes on higher stocks for the United States and Brazil.
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower soybean exports and higher ending stocks.
Soybean exports are forecast at 1.72 billion bushels, down 35 million from last month, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January and strong competition with Brazil. With crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 315 million bushels, up 35 million.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per short ton.
The soybean oil price is forecast at 51 cents per pound, down 3 cents.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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