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MUMBAI, 18 July (Commoditiescontrol) Despite early concerns of a dry season due to the projected El Nino weather pattern, India has reported average monsoon rainfall since the beginning of the monsoon season on June 1. A significant delay in the monsoon's arrival led to a substantial rain deficit up to mid-June, but heavy rainfall since the last week of June managed to offset the shortfall.
However, while this average monsoon might be ordinarily seen as a boon for Indian farmers, the erratic rainfall distribution this year has raised new concerns. According to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), only about a third of the country has received average rainfall, with 34% facing deficient rains and 32% receiving excessive precipitation.
While some northern and north-western states such as Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan have been drenched with nearly double their normal rainfall, southern and eastern regions like Jharkhand, Bihar, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Kerala are experiencing drought-like conditions with up to 41% less rainfall than normal.
The uneven rainfall distribution has significantly impacted the sowing and growth of summer crops, notably rice, cotton, oilseeds, and pulses. In northern states, heavy rainfall has damaged newly planted rice crops, forcing many farmers to consider replanting. Conversely, insufficient rainfall in southern and eastern regions has delayed the planting of numerous crops including rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, groundnuts, and pulses. This imbalance in rainfall is posing a serious threat to the farmers' livelihoods and the country's food security.
The situation has led to a 6% reduction in the area under rice cultivation compared to last year, and a significant rise in the prices of certain vegetables like tomatoes. Additionally, the planting of pulses, a primary protein source for India's vegetarian population, has also been delayed, leading to a projected decrease in yields.
As per the farm ministry data, pulses have been planted on an area 13% smaller than last year, while soybean and cotton planting areas are down by 2% and 12%, respectively. Delays in planting after mid-July typically lead to lower yields across India, as rising temperatures approaching mid-September can affect pod formation and filling in crops planted late.
Furthermore, the impact extends beyond the summer crops. The delay in sowing and harvesting summer crops often leads to late sowing of winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas. Weather agencies predict a strong El Nino during the Indian winter months, which may result in higher-than-normal temperatures and reduced winter crop yields.
Such a scenario would further exacerbate India's ongoing struggle to control wheat prices, while lower rapeseed output could necessitate an increase in vegetable oil imports. As a result, the country's farmers and economy are bracing for challenging times ahead.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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