NEW DELHI, Sept 25 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2021-22 dry pea production may fall to 2.5 million tonnes (Mt), down 45 percent from 2020-21, according to AAFC’s latest outlook report, published on Sept 24.
For 2020-21, exports were lower than the 2019-20 level at 3.6 million tonnes (Mt) despite record shipments to China. This was offset by lower exports to Bangladesh and India. Domestic use was higher compared to the previous year. The average dry pea price was $340/t, rising sharply from 2019-20, despite lower exports which led to an increase in carry-out stocks in 2020-21. The average crop year prices for yellow and feed peas were higher than for the previous year but prices were lower than 2019-20 for green pea types.
For 2021-22, Canadian dry pea production in Canada is estimated by STC to fall by 45% from 2020-21, to 2.5 Mt, due to lower yields. Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to account for 52% and 39% of the dry pea production, respectively, with the remainder in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada. As a result, total supply is forecast to fall sharply despite higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be rationed to 2.3 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh continuing to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall. The average price is expected to be sharply higher than 2020-21, at a record $580/t, due to lower world supply and decreased carry-out stocks in Canada.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to fall by 3% from 2020-21, to just below 1.0 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in North Dakota. With higher abandonment and lower yields, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to fall 44% to 551 Kt. The major US export markets for dry peas, were China, Canada, the Philippines and Yemen.
Lentils
For 2020-21, lentil exports fell to 2.3 Mt, down 15% from the record set the previous year. Of this, 1.5 Mt were red lentil types, with 0.8 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was higher than the previous year at under 0.5 Mt. Carry-out stocks rose sharply to 0.4 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was significantly higher than 2019-20. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a crop year premium of $135/t over No.1 red lentil prices.
For 2021-22, lentil production is estimated to fall by 37% to 1.8 Mt due to lower yields. Seeded area rose marginally, but below average yields are expected, with the majority of the decrease being red lentil types. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 90% of the lentil production and 10% in Alberta. With the sharp fall in production, total supply is forecast to fall only 28% due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower at 1.9 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease sharply to below 0.1 Mt. The average price for all grades is forecast to be significantly higher than 2020-21 at a record $1,000/t, due to lower carry-out stocks and expectations for a decrease in world supply.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA at over 0.7 million acres, 35% higher than 2020-21, due to higher area seeded in Montana and North Dakota. However, with lower yields and higher abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by USDA at below 0.3 Mt, down 31% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, Mexico and the EU, particularly Spain.
Dry Beans
For 2020-21, dry bean exports were slightly higher than 2019-20 at a record 0.4 Mt. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Angola, Japan and Mexico. A stronger exchange rate and a record North American crop provided the majority of the pressure on Canadian dry bean prices in 2020-21.
For 2021-22, Canadian production is forecast to fall by 28% to 0.35 Mt, due to a decrease in seeded area and lower yields, mostly in Manitoba. By province, Manitoba is expected to account for 41% of the dry bean production, Ontario 29% and Alberta 27%, with the remainder in Saskatchewan. Total supply is expected to decrease by only 5%, due to large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be similar or marginally higher than the previous year. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to rise to a record $1,090/t, due to lower expected supply in North America.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 16% to below 1.5 million acres, largely due to lower area seeded in North Dakota and Nebraska. Total US dry bean production for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to fall below 1.1 Mt, 29% lower than in 2020-21.
Chickpeas
For 2020-21, Canadian chickpea exports rose from the previous year to 150 thousand tonnes (Kt). Increased demand from Pakistan and the US were behind the rise in exports. As a result of the larger supply and despite an increase in exports, carry-out stocks rose from the previous year. The average price increased sharply, despite an increase in world supply for all chickpea types.
For 2021-22, production is forecast to fall significantly to 64 Kt, due to decreased area and sharply lower average yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 78% of the chickpea production, with 22% in Alberta. Total supply is forecast to fall by only 23% to 0.39 Mt due to large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower than 2020-21, however carry-out stocks are expected to decrease for the first time in 5 years. The average price is forecast to rise sharply to $985/t due to expectations for a smaller world chickpea supply.
US chickpea area for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 39% to 0.38 million acres. With lower yields and higher abandonment, 2021-22 US chickpea production is forecast by USDA at 138 kt, down 29% from the previous year. The main export markets are Pakistan, the EU and Canada.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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