Week Ahead: Tur may trade steady to firm on hopes of demand for Tur dal

MUMBAI, 1 Oct (Commoditiescontrol) - Imported variety Tur prices have eased during the week ended to Oct 1st, 2022, as millers reamined inactive, and improved supplies from Africa & Burma and month-end settlement of forward business kept a check on both prices and availability.

Moreover, millers faced disparity due to sluggish offtake of Tur dal despite ongoing festive season and higher vegetable prices.

Similarly, domestic variety Tur at Akola market bilty basis fell by Rs 175-200/100Kg .







Arrival pressure kept slowly building as well on the counter. Vessel M V ISLANDER from Africa has discharged 3,723 MT till 1st Oct at Mumbai port. The Vessel is carrying 23,873 MT Mozambique origin Tur. Around 900 containers (21,600 MT) arrived at Chennai port from Sep 01-21, 2022. Each container is of 24 MT.

Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu Civil Supplies Corporation has issued e-tender to purchase 20,000 MT Tur Dal/Masoor Dal/Masoor. Last date for online submission of e-tender is Oct 10th, 2022.

Weather provided much need relief to ensure steady arrival in major production centers of Karnataka. Weather condition was almost clear this week. At current stage, Tur new crop is in good condition at Aland, Chittapur, Sedam and Chincholi of Gulbarga district.

At Raichur, Tur crop is less compared to last year and the new crop is expected to hit local market by November end, local traders informed.

As per Tandur based trader, new is Tur expected to hit local market after mid December. Here sowing was only 50% as compared to last year. Crops are likely to have suffered a damage due to excessive and regular rains also. Tur production in this area is pegged at 30-40% of last year crop.

At Yangon market, prices of Tur Lemon variety remained weak by $15 to $925 per ton on a CNF Chennai basis. At prevailing CNF rates and exchange rate landed cost of Tur at Indian ports was at Rs 7,725/100kg. Meanwhile, Burmese currency appreciated to 2600 Kyat/dollar against 3100-3200 kyat/dollar in the previous week.

On the other hand, CNF quotes for African origins were almost flat. While, CNF offers for Sudan Tur was sharply down by $50/PMT.



Back home, depreciation of Rupee to 81.50 against USD has made landed cost of imports costlier.

As per the latest sowing data released by the government of India 2022-23, Kharif Tur acreage was down 4.43% (compared to the same period last year) as of Sep 30 at 46.15 Lakh Ha Vs 48.29 Lakh Ha last year.



Trend: Tur prices are expected to remain rangebound as trade activity will be less due to upcoming holidays next week. Meanwhile, millers stayed inactive as they were facing disparity due to dull offtake in Tur dal. There is likelyhood Turdal demand reviving after 5th October, due to lower rates. Prices may get support if Tamil Nadu civil supply award purchase tender on 10th Oct. Meanwhile, Tur dal processed from African origin Tur was offered at lower rates for next fortnight delivery condition. This will result in an increased price difference in Tur dal processed from Lemon variety and domestic variety versus dal processed from African Tur. As a result, prices of Tur dal processed from desi Tur and Lemon Tur may come under pressure. Supply pressure from Africa is likely to continue and hit Indian ports. Stockiest are expected to exit from Tur and shift to soybean stock. Any rise in prices should be seen as an opportunity to exit.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015513)