Mumbai, 18 Mar (Commoditiescontrol): There is a mixed outlook for global exports of soybean oil, according to a recent report by OILWORLD. The report states that recent strong prices for palm oil have led importers to look for alternatives, such as sunflower oil and soybean oil.
Argentina is expected to see a pronounced recovery in soybean oil exports in the coming months, due in part to its biodiesel industry operating below potential. This is in contrast to Brazil, where more than 80% of soybean oil production is expected to be consumed domestically in April/September 2024. This is up from 70% two years ago.
The report estimates that combined soybean oil exports from Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay will be 4.7 million tons in April/September 2024, up from 4.1 million tons a year earlier. However, the timing and magnitude of the recovery of Argentine biodiesel production is seen as a key factor in the availability of soybean oil on the world market for the rest of the year.
A new trade flow of Argentine soybean oil to North America is also expected to affect supplies available for other importers. The report tentatively pegs exports to the United States and Canada at 0.4-0.5 million tons in October/September 2023/24. The bulk of this will be imported directly for biofuel production in California, while some will be exported to the US as biodiesel from Canada.
In addition, South American soybean oil exports to India are estimated to be in the vicinity of 2.1-2.2 million tons in April/September 2024, up from 1.7 million tons a year earlier. This is due to an expected increase in Indian vegetable import requirements in the second half of the season, following a sharp decline in imports and domestic stocks in recent months.
The report concludes that under these assumptions, South American soybean oil exports to countries besides North America and India may be limited to only 3.7 million tons in October/September 2023/24. This is down from 4.1 million tons two years earlier. This has led to an increase in dependence on sunflower oil in North Africa and other importing countries.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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