Week Ahead: White Pea price may ease further as sellers stay active

MUMBAI, 28 JAN (Commoditiescontrol): White pea prices in Kanpur fell during the week ending January 28th, as predicted in the previous weekly report. Farmers and stockists were actively selling their existing stock ahead of the arrival of the new crop, which is expected to start in the first week of March. White Pea prices at the Kanpur market traded weak by Rs 150 at Rs 4,375-4,600/100 kg, as per quality. On the other hand, Vatana besan and dal remained unchanged, each at Rs 3,800/50Kg and Rs 5,800, respectively.

The acreage of India's Rabi Pea crop for 2022-23 was down 4.28% on January 27 compared to the same period in 2021-22, according to the most recent sowing figures. This translates to 9.62 lakh hectares, down from 10.05 lakh hectares last year.

International Update According to AAFC's January 2023 forecast report, Canada's dry peas production in the 2023-24 crop year starting August 1 is expected to drop 5% from 3.42 million tonnes (Mt) to 3.25 Mt. Due to high returns for other crops, planted area is expected to shrink from 2022-23 to 1.3 million hectares (Mha) in 2023-24. With trend yields, production will drop 5% to 3.25 Mt. Carry-in supplies will boost supply to 3.9 Mt. With a minor rise in exportable supply, shipments to foreign countries are predicted to be greater than 2022-23 and carry-out stocks to remain stable. Due to decreasing dry pea prices and greater world supply, the average price is lower than 2022-23. Canadian dry pea exports for August–November 2022–23 were 1.1 million tonnes (Mt), 15% more than last year. China imported 0.63 Mt. Bangladesh exports 0.18 Mt after China. Canadian dry pea exports are expected to jump 31% to 2.5 Mt due to increasing supply. Higher production and decreased carry-in stocks will boost Canadian dry pea supply by 35%. Carry-out supplies will rise substantially and pressure prices in 2022-23 due to increased supply. Due to decreasing dry pea prices, the average price will drop 22% to $460/tonne (t). Last year, green peas had a $60/t discount to yellow peas. This year, they are likely to maintain a $25/t premium. The USDA estimates dried pea production at 0.69 Mt, up 77% from 2021-22. Yields improved. Canadian dry pea exports to the US are expected to drop to 0.3 Mt in 2022–23.

Trend: According to a Kanpur-based trader, the price of White Pea is likely to trade even lower in the coming week, and the price may touch 4,000/100kg by the middle of February. This week rains were reported in the pea-growing belt, but no crop damage was reported. Meanwhile, farmers and stockists are actively selling existing stock in anticipation of the arrival of the new crop, which is expected to arrive in the first week of March. Furthermore, the arrival of cheap green pea vegetable crops and government distribution programmes reduced white pea demand.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)