Historical Trend Suggests Desi Tur to Outperform Lemon Tur.

Mumbai, August 03 (Commoditiescontrol): As per historical trends observed since 2014, the spread between Desi Tur (Akola) and Lemon Tur (Mumbai) has maintained a consistent and robust structure. This spread lies well-defined between the values of 1.00x and 1.20x, implying that the price of Desi Tur ranges from being equal to Lemon Tur on the lower side to 1.2 times the price of Lemon Tur on the higher side.
Over the past few months, a strong wave of speculation in the Lemon Tur market has influenced the price dynamic significantly. The speculation has led to a contraction of this spread, pushing it towards the lower band near 1.00x in June 2023. However, the spread has been on an expansionary trend since this adjustment, with the current reading at 1.07.

Historically, this spread has shown a tendency to expand, suggesting that Desi Tur is likely to outperform Lemon Tur. The trend indicates that as the spread widens, the relative strength of Desi Tur grows, and it could provide a higher return on investment compared to Lemon Tur.

Given these market dynamics and historic trends, the recommended strategy for traders is to shift focus from Lemon Tur to Desi Tur. Traders currently holding Lemon Tur are advised to consider selling their holdings and reinvesting in Desi Tur. This strategy capitalizes on the expanding spread and the historical trend that suggests a greater potential for returns from Desi Tur.


The above strategy is supported by technical values for both Desi Tur and Lemon Tur, as depicted in the following charts. These analyses suggest a contrasting movement for both commodities: Desi Tur is expected to appreciate to 11,000 per quintal, while, concurrently, Burma Lemon Tur is projected to undergo a correction to 9,500/8500 per quintal.



(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)