Mumbai, 23 Oct (Commoditiescontrol):In a recent report, Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC) revised its outlook for dry peas for the crop years 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.
2022-23 Highlights:
Exports witnessed a significant rise, reaching 25.6 lakh tonnes (Lt), up from the 2021-22 levels. This increase was primarily driven by heightened shipments to nations including China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. In contrast, exports to the US showed a decline.
Domestic consumption surged notably when compared to the prior year.
Despite these increases in usage, the availability of a more substantial supply led to an uptick in the carry-out stocks for the 2022-23 period.
Dry pea prices observed a dip of 25%, settling at an average of $440/tonne (t), attributable to the surplus supply. This downward trend was consistent across all dry pea types, with their prices being lower than those seen in the previous year.
2023-24 Predictions:
Canada's dry pea production is forecasted to experience a downturn, plummeting by 34% to 23 lakh tonnes (Lt). This decrease is attributed to significantly diminished yields in Western Canada, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which are anticipated to contribute to 21 lakh tonnes of the overall production. The remaining production is likely to be dispersed across Manitoba, British Columbia, and Eastern Canada.
A sharp 26% supply reduction is projected, bringing the total down to 28 lakh tonnes.
Exports might witness a stark decline, falling to 19 lakh tonnes. The prime markets for these exports are predicted to be China, the US, and Bangladesh.
Due to the reduced supply, both domestic consumption and carry-out stocks are anticipated to decrease.
The average price of dry peas might drop further by 7% from the 2022-23 price, rounding off to about $410/t.
Price Variations:
In September, there was a notable distinction in the farm gate prices of Saskatchewan yellow and green peas. While the former increased by $30/t, the latter saw a more significant rise of $60/t. Currently, green dry peas are priced at a premium of $180/t over yellow dry peas, a notable increment from the previous year where the difference was just $65/t.
US Dry Pea Forecast:
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the area designated for dry pea cultivation in the US for 2023-24 will enlarge by 3% from the previous year, equating to about 9.5 lakh acres (0.38 lakh hectares (Lha)). This expansion is predominantly expected in North Dakota and Montana. The USDA also anticipates US dry pea production to swell by 14%, culminating at 8 lakh tonnes. Despite the production increase, the US's export of dry peas in 2022-23 remained modest at approximately 2.5 lakh tonnes, directed mostly towards Canada, the Philippines, and China. The US aims to sustain this market share in 2023-24, riding on the back of its enhanced production.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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